Research
What Average Returns
Don’t Tell You
Averages mean nothing without context. And in the financial world, context is everything.
Great Alone,
Better Together
Winning a championship — or winning in the markets — isn’t about luck. It’s about structure, discipline, and putting the right pieces in…
Risk
Statistics
Understanding the balance of risk and return is fundamental to making informed investment decisions. To do this, key risk statistics are…
It’s All About Timing:
Why Birth-Date Luck Should Matter to Investors
Buy-and-hold Investment outcomes are largely dictated by timing, especially in the 20 years leading up to retirement when…
The Strategy, the funds,
the funds, the Strategy
A question keeps popping up regularly with our advisors: should they use our strategies or our funds? The answer is yes, and it depends.
Understanding Fund
Distributions
Understanding how distributions work is essential for all mutual fund shareholders. Dividends and capital gains directly affect…
The Marketing Magic
of Income Funds
One of the hottest trends today revolves around ETFs that pay out a high dividend. This is often framed as…
We Plan,
The Market Laughs
I would argue that the three events described above, on their own, fit the bill for something the market should hate—let alone all three…
Rate Cut
Narratives
Data can always be manipulated to support a particular opinion, so we aim to take an objective look and let the data inform our conclusions.
Expect
the Unexpected
Whether it is a virus that shuts down the globe or a single-day decline in stocks of more than 20%, we must expect the unexpected.
Indicator
Roulette
Many analysts and commentators decide whether to be bullish or bearish, and then will choose the indicator that best suits that view.
This is Going to End Badly,
Bro
Despite my unfairly given nickname, “Doomsday Dan,” we have never been known to be part of the “this is going to end badly” crowd.
Not so Efficient
Frontier
Financial advisors typically start their initial investment conversation by determining the client’s comfort level with risk.
From Turtle to ETF:
Managed Futures Overview
What started as a friendly debate between two successful traders turned into a challenge that aimed to settle…
Not all Momentum
is the Same
When it comes to investing, momentum is the velocity of price change over time. Money managers may use momentum to identify…
Choosing to be
Different
“Be yourself; everyone else is already taken.” That’s good advice but sometimes it’s hard to follow, especially… on Wall Street.
Not so Fast:
The Pitfalls of Buffer ETFs
Buffer ETFs have gone from nonexistent to an over $27 billion (about $83 per person in the US) AUM product as of mid-2023.
Dow Inclusion:
Signal or Noise?
We look at a few prior instances of additions and deletions from the Dow to form our own thoughts on the subject.
Actively Passive;
No, Passively Active
Passive index investors are not interested in finding value in the market. So, as they pump more money into SPY, they are just pumping…
Bitcoin ETFs?
Shall We Take a Look?
In today’s blog, we dive into the SEC’s approval of 11 Spot Bitcoin ETFs and what it means for our investment strategies.
Your Hand in Mine,
We Walk the Miles
The bond market looked at the stock market and said: And so, today my world it smiles, Your hand in mine, we walk the miles…
Performance
vs. Participation
“You know, Dan, there are only seven stocks holding the market up this year.” I have heard some versions of this comment many times over…
Tactically
Seasonal
The market has continued to be choppy, frustrating both the bulls and the bears. Recall that, on average, the seasonal pattern calls for this…
Things
Change
We are witnessing what happens when a 40-year trend comes to an end. A trend that has been in place for most of our careers and many of our lives.
A Perfectly
Normal Year
The second you let your political views (not analysis) drive your investment decisions, you have already lost.
What Does it Mean
to be Extended?
Let’s dig back into your memory, to that statistics class that you took, and you will find that there is a way to define or quantify extended.
My Take on a Legend’s
Investment Rules
Dr. Martin Zweig had 17 rules that he developed during his illustrious tenure as a money manager. “Don’t Fight the Fed” is easily his most famous.
And the Loser Now
Will Be Later to Win…
No one knows for sure if the “times they are a-changin’,” but that Bob Dylan line came to mind when I looked at the chart…
A Teacher and
a Student
Teaching my technical analysis class has served as a constant reminder of the importance of sticking to the fundamentals.
Technical Analysis 101:
The Advance/Decline Line
Simply put, the A/D Line is perhaps the best way to gauge the market’s overall health. It’s typically used for an entire index…
The Truth About the
Killer Yield Curve
Let’s dig into exactly what an inverted yield curve means, the implications for market losses, and if you should start to batten…
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