Rate Cut  Narratives

Rate Cut
Narratives

Naturally, in times of high inflation, the Federal Reserve’s actions dominate media coverage, especially leading up to interest rate decisions. The federal funds rate rose from 0.25% in March 2022, to 5.5% in July of 2023, and stayed there for over a year. As of...
Expect  the Unexpected

Expect
the Unexpected

Whether it is a virus that shuts down the globe or a single-day decline in stocks of more than 20%, we must expect the unexpected. In both markets and life, it is remarkable how often the unlikely happens. Usually, these events are described as outliers, which happen...
Indicator  Roulette

Indicator
Roulette

The first known reference to “Russian Roulette” was in a classic novel published in 1840. Merriam-Webster defines the game as, “An act of bravado consisting of spinning the cylinder of a revolver loaded with one cartridge, pointing the muzzle at one’s own head,...
This is Going to End Badly,  Bro

This is Going to End Badly,
Bro

Despite my unfairly given nickname, “Doomsday Dan,” we have never been known to be part of the “this is going to end badly” crowd. You know these types, the doomsayers who are always bearish (as in, since 2009 always bearish). With each record high for the index or...
Not so Efficient  Frontier

Not so Efficient
Frontier

What is Modern Portfolio Theory? Financial advisors typically start their initial investment conversation by determining the client’s comfort level with risk. Harry Markowitz, a Nobel Prize-winning economist, formed the most common method for determining the maximum...
From Turtle to ETF:  Managed Futures Overview

From Turtle to ETF:
Managed Futures Overview

A legendary experiment in the early 1980s involved a group called the “Turtle Traders.” What started as a friendly debate between two successful traders turned into a challenge that aimed to settle this question: are great traders born with the skills, or can they be...