This Gives Us Pause

This Gives Us Pause 
Dan Russo, CMT 
January 26, 2026 

 The S&P 500 closed lower for a second consecutive week, while the NASDAQ 100 remains in the consolidation zone we’ve been highlighting here. There has been a small uptick in new lows on the NYSE over the past week. At the same time, the five-day moving average of decliners on the NYSE has reached its highest level of 2026. 

To be clear, these are minor and early shifts. They can easily reverse, but for now, they merit attention. 

S&P 500 

The closely watched index moved lower for a second straight week but remains well above a steadily rising 60-week moving average. Is this enough to cause concern? Absolutely not. But we want to see the weakness bought quickly. 

Source: Optuma 

NASDAQ 100 

The NASDAQ 100 delivered a largely flat performance last week and remains in consolidation above its rising long-term moving average. Here too, there’s no major cause for concern—just an acknowledgment that little progress has been made for nearly three months. 

Odds still favor a pause rather than something more sinister. 

Source: Optuma 

NYSE Decliners and New Lows 

While the price action highlighted above is not concerning on its own, we are mindful that last week saw an increase in both the number of decliners (five-day moving average, in blue) and the number of new lows on the NYSE. 

These are subtle shifts. The best outcome would be a quick reversal. However, continued deterioration here would justify further caution. 

Source: Optuma 

Volatility 

On the positive side, there has been no sustained or meaningful spike in volatility. That said, volatility has been trending higher so far in 2026 and, the move is subtle—but it’s there. 

Source: Optuma 

Rest of the World 

It’s possible that investors are simply reallocating capital outside the U.S. The iShares MSCI ACWI ex U.S. Index Fund closed higher for a ninth consecutive week and continues to trade well above its rising 10-week moving average. 

Source: Optuma 

Final Thoughts 

The primary trend remains intact, and nothing here suggests the market is breaking down. That said, some internal governor indicators are starting to lean less supportive in the very short term, and that earns our attention. 

These are early signals, not conclusions. Ideally, we see decliners, new lows, and volatility fade quickly, reinforcing the idea that this is just another pause within a broader uptrend. If that happens, the bull case remains firmly in place. 

PFM-305-20260126