Bulls on Parade
Dan Russo, CMT
May 4, 2026
Major U.S. averages closed higher for a fifth consecutive week. They did this despite continued uncertainty in Iran, despite ongoing drama at the Federal Reserve, and despite the week ending on May 1, the start of the so‑called “sell in May and go away” period.
S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100
I’m not sure what more there is to say. Both indices are in clear uptrends, above their respective rising 60‑week moving averages, and trading at record highs. Dips continue to be bought, as is often the case in bull markets.
Source: Optuma
NYSE Net New Highs/Lows
On the NYSE, we continue to see more stocks making new highs than new lows. In fact, over the final two trading days of the week, that net number expanded.
This expansion in net new highs is happening with the S&P 500 at record levels. That’s confirmation, not divergence.
Source: Optuma
More Breadth Confirmation
Less well known, but no less important, the S&P 100 is also trading at record levels. Recall that new highs are not bearish.
At the same time, the NYSE Advance/Decline Line sits near record highs as well. Technically, there is a slight divergence, but for now, the market deserves the benefit of the doubt.
Source: Optuma
Sell in May and Go Away
Last week ended on May 1, which will have many pointing out that we have entered the historically weaker six months of the year for equities. That’s true, but it often gets overstated.
The May through October period is not negative on average. It is simply the least positive of all rolling six‑month periods. Since 1950, five of the six months have been positive on average, with September acting as a notable downside outlier.
Source: Optuma
Rate Cut Expectations
If I wanted to make a bearish argument, I would be far less concerned about seasonality and far more focused on rates. The bond market continues to keep rate cuts off the table following last week’s Federal Reserve meeting.
The two‑year yield remains above the Effective Fed Funds Rate.
Source: Optuma
Final Thoughts
Five straight weeks of gains, expanding participation, and confirmation across multiple indices is not the profile of a bear market. The bulls are firmly in control, and the trend remains higher.
If I were inclined to look for a bear case, it would be in the rate-cut narrative.
