Nice Follow Through
Dan Russo, CMT
April 13, 2026
First, we said the market looked like it was ready for a bounce. The move to the downside was simply too far, too fast to be sustained in the near term. The market gave us exactly what we were looking for, bouncing hard. Then we said the bulls needed follow‑through, and that is exactly what they got last week.
Obviously, the geopolitical backdrop remains murky, but at this point it can fairly be described as “less bad” than it was. In markets, less bad is often good enough. Absent a major escalation in conflict, the odds now favor a retest of prior highs.
S&P 500
After failing at the 60‑week moving average the prior week, the S&P 500 surged through it last week. The move keeps the trajectory of the moving average pointed higher. The weekly candle also clearly depicts a market with bulls in control, with Monday’s open near the low of the week and Friday’s close near the high.
Source: Optuma
NYSE New Highs and New Lows
As the saying goes, you can’t have a bear market with expanding new highs. Last week, new lows fell sharply while new highs moved higher.
That’s not bearish.
Source: Optuma
Dow Jones Transportation Average
Like a freight train, the Dow Jones Transportation Average remains on a bullish track. This key intermarket index logged its fourth consecutive week of gains and traded to a new high, well above its rising 27‑week moving average.
Source: Optuma
High Yield Credit Spreads
Credit markets have improved over the past two weeks, sending high‑yield spreads back toward their tightest levels of the past year. The one‑year stochastic now sits near 16 percent.
That’s a constructive development.
Final Thoughts
This was exactly the kind of follow‑through the bulls needed to see, and they got it. Price pushed through resistance, breadth improved, credit stabilized, and leadership areas continued to act well.
As long as key levels hold and internals continue to repair, the path of least resistance remains higher.
For now, the weight of the evidence has shifted back in favor of the bulls. The market has earned the benefit of the doubt again.
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