By
Dan Russo
•
After Five Losing Weeks, Time for a Bounce?
Dan Russo, CMT
March 30, 2026
As we move toward the end of the first quarter, the S&P 500 is sitting on a five-week losing streak. That’s not exactly bull market behavior. The key to tactical management is letting the data dictate stance. And as you can imagine, five consecutive weekly losses tend to produce short-term oversold conditions.
S&P 500
As noted above, the S&P 500 enters the final days of the quarter—and a holiday shortened week—in a tough spot. Five straight weekly declines have pushed the index below the now flat 60-week moving average.
That’s not a great setup, but it does raise the odds of a short-term bounce.
Source: Optuma
Mag Seven
Once again, a large portion of the blame for market weakness falls on the former darlings. The Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS) was sharply lower last week, pushing the group below the December 2024 peak. At the same time, the 50-day moving average has crossed below the 200-day moving average.
On a relative basis, the group is now at a new low for the year.
Source: Optuma
Aggregate Bonds
In yet another example of why static asset allocations based on historical correlations can come back to hurt you, aggregate bonds fell for a fourth consecutive week and now trade below the 40-week moving average.
Recall that we’ve been vocal for years about the fact that as inflation rises, stocks and bonds tend to move together. The key level to watch for the Consumer Price Index remains 3%.
Source: Optuma
The S&P 500 Volatility Index
Weakness across most equity groups pushed the market’s “fear gauge” sharply higher. The S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) closed above 30 for the first time this year.
This is an important level to watch when thinking about potential mean reversion opportunities.
Source: Optuma
Dow Jones Transportation Average
To be fair, and open-minded, it wasn’t all doom and gloom last week. The Dow Jones Transportation Average rallied to close higher for a second consecutive week and remains well above its rising 27-week moving average.
Source: Optuma
Final Thoughts
Equity bulls are on the defensive, and this time they’re getting no help from bonds. That said, markets rarely move in straight lines. Five consecutive weekly declines have pushed the S&P 500 into short term oversold territory, and elevated volatility raises the odds of a tactical bounce.
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