No Roar in These Bears
Dan Russo, CMT
May 26, 2026
I recently made it over to the National Zoo, and while I was hoping to see the giant pandas out in the open playing, I wasn’t so lucky. It must have been lunchtime, because each bear was sitting in its own room on a big pile of bamboo… eating, and eating, and eating.
These were not big, ferocious bears. They looked playful and cuddly. I wanted to pet them. They remind me of the bears in today’s market. There is no aggression. There is no attack. There is no roar.
S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100
As we discussed last week, there was a chance for the bears to mount an attack. Both indices showed indecision candles, and both failed to close near the high of the week.
But there was no roar. This current crop of market bears seems content to poke their heads out briefly, then retreat to a quiet room for some bamboo and a belly rub.
Source: Optuma
NYSE Decliners and New Lows
This is a perfect example of what we mean. Decliners had been trending higher, as had new lows. This was happening even with the broader indices trading near record highs.
That should have been an opportunity for aggressive bears to strike. Instead, nothing. They stayed in their rooms.
Source: Optuma
Intermarket Themes
Both the Dow Jones Transportation Average and the PHLX Semiconductor Index remain in long-term uptrends, trading above steadily rising 27‑week moving averages.
Source: Optuma
S&P 500 Volatility Index
The S&P 500 Volatility Index continues to trend lower, suggesting that bulls are not concerned. They know the bears are all show and no go.
Source: Optuma
Final Thoughts
It is clear there is no roar in the market’s bears. They have had opportunities to press the downside and simply haven’t taken them. That tells you something.
Maybe that makes sense in a world dominated by passive flows. As long as money keeps coming in every two weeks through retirement contributions, there is a steady bid under the market.
If the bears are going to matter, they need a catalyst strong enough to disrupt that flow. The most obvious one would be a recession tied to meaningful job losses.
Right now, that does not appear to be a high-probability outcome.
