The Only Fear is Lack of Fear
Dan Russo, CMT®
June 1, 2026
Another week, another record. The S&P 500 has now delivered nine consecutive weeks of gains, while the NASDAQ 100 has been positive in eight of the last nine. Runs like this create an environment with little, if any, fear.
And perhaps that is the thing to fear.
S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100
These charts are presented with minimal commentary, because none is really needed. Markets in bullish trends go higher. The 60‑week moving averages for both indices have been sloping upward since May 2025. That is, by definition, an uptrend. We should not be surprised when assets in an uptrend go up!
Source: Optuma
S&P 500 Equal Weight Index
If you are inclined to believe that this rally is all about mega caps or “AI stocks,” think again. The S&P 500 Equal Weight Index also closed at a record weekly high last week.
In plain English, the average stock is in an uptrend.
Source: Optuma
PHLX Semiconductor Index
Last week I received three calls from financial journalists working on stories about semiconductors. It is the hot theme, with an even hotter narrative behind it.
But we do not do narratives. We do data.
The data says semiconductors are in an uptrend and have been since the 50‑day moving average crossed above the 200‑day moving average in July 2025. Again, no one should be surprised that an asset in an uptrend is going up.
Is the group extended? Yes. A 50‑day Z‑score above 2 and a 200‑day Z‑score above 3 say exactly that. But “extended” is a terrible standalone sell signal.
Source: Optuma
Volatility
If there is something to watch, it is the lack of fear. Both the S&P 500 Volatility Index and the ICE BofA MOVE Index have been trending lower since their March spikes. Investors across asset classes are not concerned.
Source: Optuma
Final Thoughts
Assets in uptrends usually keep going up, no one should be surprised. It really does not matter that there is a good story or narrative.
The biggest concern that we can see now is that there is little to no fear in the market. But. that alone is not a reason to have a finger on the sell button.
